Daily News - Thursday, 16 April 2026

Indian Envoy Kwatra Meets US Trade Representative Amid BTA Talks (Economic Times)

India’s Ambassador to the US Vinay Mohan Kwatra met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and former National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien in Washington to advance negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement (BTA). The meeting comes after both sides announced in February 2026 the finalisation of a framework under which the US agreed to cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, down from higher levels imposed earlier. Talks were delayed after the US Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that President Trump’s tariff policies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPPA) were unconstitutional, forcing Washington to redesign its global tariff architecture. India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri also visited Washington last week, underscoring the urgency of finalising the deal. The negotiations are complicated by two ongoing Section 301 investigations by the US Trade Representative one on forced labour in supply chains and another on overcapacity in manufacturing sectors, including India and China. Officials from both sides expect the agreement to be signed once the US completes its new tariff framework, with India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry closely monitoring the process.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Raises India’s Growth Forecast to 6.5% Amid Global Cut (Indian Express)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the West Asia war could trigger the largest energy crisis in modern times, cutting global growth for 2026 by 20 basis points to 3.1%, but slightly raising India’s forecast to 6.5%. The IMF assumes oil prices will rise 21.4% to USD $82 (INR ₹6,800) per barrel in 2026, with inflation averaging 4.7% in India, broadly in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s 4.6% projection. India’s upward revision reflects stronger‑than‑expected growth in 2025, when GDP expanded 8.4% and 7.8% in the last two quarters, and benefits from the US tariff cut on Indian goods to 10% from 50%. In contrast, Iran’s economy is forecast to shrink by 6.1%, while global inflation is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2026 before easing. The IMF cautioned that risks remain firmly on the downside, with adverse scenarios projecting crude at USD $100 (INR ₹8,300) and severe cases at USD $110-125 (INR ₹9,100-10,400), which could push global growth down to 2% a near recession. The forecasts were released during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC, underscoring the fragile outlook for emerging markets like India despite its relative resilience.

India Emerges as Second Market for Sanctioned Russian LNG After China (Reuters)

A sanctioned cargo of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Portovaya plant on the Baltic Sea is heading to India’s Dahej LNG terminal, marking the first such delivery under U.S. sanctions. The plant, with a capacity of 1.5 million tons per year, has faced restrictions since January 2025 as part of sanctions over the Ukraine war, disrupting Russia’s ability to export LNG. India, one of the world’s largest energy importers, has not confirmed reports that it pledged to halt Russian energy purchases, instead stating that decisions are guided by price, supply security, and consumer interests, especially amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker Kunpeng (138,200 cubic metres) is en route, potentially opening India as a second sanctioned market after China, which has already received cargoes at Beihai port from Portovaya and Arctic LNG-2. Before sanctions, Portovaya shipped two cargoes per month in winter, but since March 2025 has only supplied China and Russia’s exclave Kaliningrad. Analysts note that if India accepts the cargo, it would strengthen Russia’s efforts to divert LNG away from Europe ahead of the EU’s planned 2027 import ban, raising questions for India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas about balancing energy security with geopolitical risks.

India Auto Sales Hit Record 28.27 Million Units in FY26 (The Hindu Businessline)

India’s automobile industry recorded its highest ever wholesale sales in FY26, with total dispatches to dealers reaching 28.27 million units, up 10.4% from 25.61 million units in FY25, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). All four major segments passenger vehicles (PVs), two-wheelers (2Ws), three-wheelers (3Ws), and commercial vehicles (CVs) posted double-digit growth, marking the first time since FY2018-19 that every category hit record highs. SIAM highlighted that strong domestic demand and economic fundamentals drove the surge, but cautioned that the West Asia war, rising crude oil prices, commodity inflation, and higher exchange rates could impact demand, supply chains, and production if prolonged. Passenger vehicles led the momentum, supported by new launches and festive demand, while two-wheelers rebounded after years of stagnation. Commercial vehicles benefited from infrastructure spending, and three-wheelers saw strong urban demand recovery. The industry outlook for FY27 remains positive, though SIAM and the Ministry of Heavy Industries are closely monitoring geopolitical risks and input costs.

India’s wholesale price Inflation (WPI) Hits 3.88% in March, Highest in 3 Years (mint)

India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) rose to 3.88% in March 2026, the highest in over three years, compared to 2.05% in March 2025, driven by surging costs of crude petroleum, natural gas, basic metals, and manufactured products, according to Commerce Ministry data. Inflation in primary articles (weight: 22.62%) jumped to 6.36%, while manufactured products (weight: 64.23%) climbed to 3.39%, reflecting broad-based pressures. Analysts at ICRA Ltd noted that crude and fuel accounted for 150 basis points of the 175 bps rise from February’s 2.13% reading. The fuel and power category, which had been in deflation at -3.78% in February, turned inflationary at 1.05% in March as global energy prices spiked amid the West Asia war. Parallelly, retail inflation (CPI) edged up to 3.4%, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projecting FY27 CPI at 4.6%, holding the repo rate steady at 5.25% while warning of upside risks from geopolitics and weather. The government is revising the WPI base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, with a NITI Aayog committee led by Ramesh Chand advising, and is exploring a transition to a Producer Price Index (PPI) to better capture services, which now account for over half of India’s GDP.