สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 5 กุมภาพันธ์ 2555
Trade liberalisation not helping India's exports, show data
Slackening demand in developed economies has hit outbound shipments from India sharply, even to countries and regions with which it has inked economic partnership and free trade agreements for most part of this financial year.
Latest data available shows that India’s exports to the 10-member bloc of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) declined by 18.6 % to $19.17 billion in the first eight months of this financial year compared with $23.55 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2011-12.
“Our exports to nearly all countries in the Asean region have declined in the first eight months of the financial year except for Thailand, Philippines and Cambodia. The issue is the low penetration in markets with which we have these trade agreements” said Ajay Sahai, director general, Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO)
(Sources: Business Standard, Economic Times, Indiatimes, Moneycontrol, Press Trust of India, i4u, India Everyday)
Budget won't be the sole ratings driver, says Fitch
Fitch Ratings, which had earlier downgraded the outlook on India’s sovereign ratings to negative, on Monday said though Budget 2013-14 would be an important gauge of the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and reforms, it wouldn’t be the sole driver of ratings. It said the government’s policy announcements were positive signals that fiscal deficit would be under control and the government would go ahead with reforms, the parameters for its ratings.
Global rating agencies Fitch, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s had assigned India the lowest rating in their investment grades. Fitch and S&P had downgraded the outlook on the ratings, which meant the rating might be lowered if the scenario, particularly on fiscal consolidation, deteriorated. However, Moody’s retained a ‘stable’ outlook on India.
(Sources: Business Standard, Express India, Livemint, Moneycontrol, Market Watch, India Everyday)
IMF forecasts 4.5% growth for India; to lose second fastest-growing economy tag
India looks all set to cede the moniker of the world's second fastest growing major economy for 2012, a fall from glory for a country that was spoken in the same breath as China for much of the previous decade and even nursed ambitions of upstaging its larger neighbour.
The latest global economic growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have India growing at 4.5% in 2012 (at market prices), much less than the big guns of ASEAN such as Indonesia and the Philippines, and even Bangladesh.
(Sources: Economic Times, Indiatimes, Times of India, Moneycontrol, News Now, India Everyday)
Economy to grow slower at 5.6% in 2012-13: NCAER
Indian economy will grow 5.6 % in the current fiscal, lower than 5.9 % projected earlier but will be higher in 2013-14, economic think-tank NCAER said today.
"Based on quarterly model estimates, the GDP growth for 2012-13 is projected at 5.6%. Our preliminary estimates show GDP growth in constant 2004-05 prices (to be) at 6.1 % in 2013-14," National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said its report on Quarterly Review of the Economy.
It said economic slowdown is evident not only on the production side of the economy but also on the demand side. The estimates show downward revision of GDP growth rate in the final two quarters, as compared to the previous estimate in October, it added.
(Sources: Business Standard, Daily Indian News, Moneycontrol, Press Trust of India, India Everyday)
Diamond exports may rise 15% this quarter
The diamond industry is regaining lustre as the export market is looking better. The industry is expecting polished diamond prices to rise soon, following the trend in rough diamonds. Rough diamond prices have gone up 4 -5% last month. Overall, diamond exports may grow 15% in the January-March period compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
"We are seeing that buyers in Europe are gaining confidence. The European market suffered a setback following the euro zone crisis. France, Italy and the entire eastern European bloc are gradually getting back into action. And this will translate into better export business in the January-March quarter," said Vipul Shah, chairman, Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).
(Sources: Economic Times, Indiatimes, Hindu Business Line, Moneycontrol, Zeenews, IBNLive)
Rice exports to fall this year as rivals sell cheap
Rice exports look likely to fall about a quarter this year as it faces one-off cost spikes and rivals such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar sell at a discount of $35 to $50 a tonne, traders said.
India, the world's biggest rice producer after China, exported a record volume, including aromatic basmati, in the year to March 31, 2012, and may in future resume such volumes, which saw it dislodge Thailand as the world's biggest seller.
But traders are now finding it difficult to repeat that feat, largely because of factors ranging from higher costs to a stronger rupee currency.
(Sources: Economic Times, Indiatimes, All Voices, News BCC, Daily Indian News, India Everyday)
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