สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 2 พฤษภาคม 2556
RBI to go for rate cut, project lower inflation, higher growth
There are two compelling reasons for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to stick to its March stance that there is very little room for monetary easing when it announces the annual monetary policy for fiscal 2014 on Friday—elevated retail inflation and a record-high current account deficit (CAD).
March consumer price, or retail, inflation was 10.4% and a reduction in fuel subsidies will not contribute to its moderation. CAD touched a record high of 6.7% in the third quarter of fiscal 2013, taking the average in the first nine months of 2012-13 to 5.4%. CAD is expected to drop in the fourth quarter, but it could still be around 5.1% for the fiscal year and this weighs against a rate cut.
Yet, the Indian central bank is expected to cut the policy rate primarily because of a sharp drop in wholesale price inflation as well as so-called core inflation, or non-food, non-oil, manufacturing inflation.
(Sources: Livemint, Reuters India, Hindu Business Line, India Everyday, Moneycontrol)
India to grow at about 5.8% in FY14: IMF
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 5.8% economic growth for India in fiscal 2013-14 and said pace of investment in infrastructure should increase to get back to 8% expansion level.
“We are forecasting India to grow at about 5.8% this fiscal and 6.3% in 2014-15. This compares to an average growth rate of 8.7% for the five years prior to the global financial crisis,” IMF deputy managing director Naoyuki Shinohara said during an event here on Wednesday.
There are possibly three reasons for the slowdown—the stagnant global economy, cyclical policies and structural domestic bottlenecks, Shinohara said.
Talking about structural bottlenecks, Shinohara said there is a need for infrastructure development in India. “Getting back to 8% growth will require addressing the investment problem, and that means getting companies investing again,” Shinohara added.
(Sources: Business Standard, Zeenews, NDTV, India Everyday, Daily India News)
India's CAD to come down to 2.5% of GDP in 2-3 years: Montek Singh Ahluwalia
Plan panel Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Wednesday expressed confidence that the current account deficit will come down to 2.5 % of GDP in the next two to three years from about 5 % currently.
Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) has projected India's CAD at around 5 per cent of GDP for 2012-13. It had reached to a historic high of 6.7 % of the GDP in the quarter ended December 2012. He said while bringing in investments, it is also necessary to manage the high current account deficit.
India's economic growth rate is estimated at 5 % in 2012-13, the lowest in a decade, on account of poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors.
(Sources: the Hindu, Indian Express, Zeenews, India Everyday, Daily India News)
Consumer confidence slips, India no longer most optimistic
Consumer confidence in India slipped to 120 in the March quarter from 121 in the December quarter, making the country lose its position as the most optimistic nation to Indonesia in Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index released on Wednesday.
Indonesia had displaced India to become the most optimistic nation for the first time in the June 2012 quarter.
The latest decline follows a gain of two points during last year’s October-December festive season. It comes as consumers remain cautious about the slowing economy and unsatisfactory corporate performance. The government estimates India’s economy grew at 5% in 2012-13, the slowest in a decade.
“The last year has seen shifting sentiment on confidence, where consumers are feeling good about themselves but not the environment around them,” said Piyush Mathur, president, Nielsen India.
(Sources: Economic Times, Indiatimes, Livemint, NDTV, India Everyday, Moneycontrol)
Core sector grows 2.9% in March
A spurt in the output of cement, steel and petroleum refinery products led to a 2.9% increase in the growth of eight core industries in March 2013, with the combined index standing at 164.5 in the month. The core sector grew 3% in March 2012.
The eight core industries of coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity- have a combined weight of 37.9% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The growth in the core industries will reflect in the IIP numbers of March, which will be released in the second week of next month.
During April-March 2012-13, the cumulative growth rate of the core industries was 2.6% compared to their growth at 5% during the corresponding period in 2011-12.
(Sources: Business Standard, Financial Express, Indian Express, Hindustan Times, Zeenews)
India’s coal imports rise in March
India, the world’s third-largest coal consumer, imported 11.8 million tonnes of the power-station and steelmaking fuel in March, shipping data shows.
Adani Enterprises Ltd, Tata Group, JSW Group and Steel Authority of India Ltd were among buyers who received 9.66 million tonnes of steam coal and 2.13 million tonnes of coking coal through 23 of the 28 ports listed by Interocean, a New Delhi- based shipper. India received 11.6 million tonnes in the same period the previous year.
The port of Mundra, operated by Adani Group, India’s biggest importer of the fuel, received the most coal at 2.37 million tonnes, according to Interocean. Dahej and Goa, on the western coast, admitted 646,832 and 634,390 tonnes.
(Sources: Bloomberg, Livemint, Reuters India, African Oil and Gas News, News BCC)
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