Rice exporters may have a windfall as Bangladesh floats tender (Financial Express)
Bangladesh’s plan to import 0.9 million tonnes of rice from August 7 has driven up Indian non-basmati rice prices by 7–13%, with Swarna, Miniket, and Sona Masoori now selling at ₹32–₹45/kg due to rising export demand. Given India’s cost and freight advantages, it is expected to capture a large share of the order, especially as Bangladesh rushes to build buffer stocks amid fears of crop damage from heavy monsoon rains. India, which exported 0.8 MT of rice to Bangladesh in FY25, stands to benefit significantly from this early tender—potentially lifting exports closer to its previous high of 1.62 MT in FY22.
IMF raises India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.4% (Financial Express)
The IMF has raised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, citing a more favourable global environment, while calendar year projections stand even higher at 6.7% for 2025. This follows similar upward revisions by S&P Global, driven by expectations of a normal monsoon, softer oil prices, and easing monetary conditions. With India’s GDP projected to hit $4.187 trillion in 2025—just ahead of Japan—it is poised to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, on track to surpass Germany and claim third place by 2027.
India buys record soyoil from China as prices fall below South America (Business Standard)
In a rare trade shift, Indian importers have bought a record 150,000 metric tonnes of soyoil from China, attracted by discounts of $15–$20 per tonne compared to traditional South American suppliers. This move follows a supply glut in China, where soybean imports hit a record high in May, pushing crushers to offload excess soyoil at around $1,140/tonne with faster 2–3 week delivery timelines. Given that India meets two-thirds of its cooking oil demand through imports, and soyoil remains cheaper from China than elsewhere, more purchases are likely if the price gap holds.
India will try to replicate U.K. deal’s pro-MSME features in future trade deals (The Hindu)
India is pushing to replicate MSME-friendly provisions from its recent trade deal with the U.K. in upcoming agreements with the U.S. and EU, aiming to boost small business participation in global trade. The India-U.K. Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) includes a dedicated MSME chapter with key features like mutual contact points, easier access to regulatory info, and preferential procurement treatment for Indian suppliers. This is expected to revive labour-intensive MSME sectors—like textiles, leather, and gems—whose export share dropped from 30.4% in 2018–19 to 24.6% in 2024–25, helping generate rural jobs and enhance competitiveness.
