India risks $11 bn hit if Russian crude access tightens (Financial Express)
India faces rising risks from U.S. penalties over Russian oil, which previously helped the country save around $17.2 billion between May 2022 and May 2025 through discounted purchases. A loss of access to Russian crude—currently 1.8–2.0 mb/d—could inflate India’s annual oil import bill by $9–11 billion and raise LNG contract costs by ₹3,900 crore for every $10/barrel increase in Brent prices, according to ICRA and Kpler estimates. While private refiners like RIL and Nayara can pivot more flexibly to Middle Eastern, West African, or Latin American grades, state refiners are becoming more cautious due to shipping, finance, and regulatory exposure, potentially tightening margins and putting fiscal pressure on the government.
Fiscal deficit doubles in Q1 as spending picks up (Financial Express)
India’s fiscal deficit rose sharply to ₹2.8 lakh crore in Q1 FY26, reaching 17.9% of the annual target due to a 52% surge in capital expenditure and a 20% rise in revenue spending, while net tax revenue slipped 1.7% year-on-year. Non-tax revenue grew 33% to ₹3.73 lakh crore, helped by higher-than-budgeted RBI dividends, allowing total revenue receipts to hit 27.6% of the full-year goal. Despite weak direct tax collections and a 5% fall in gross tax revenue in June, ICRA expects capex to exceed the budget estimate by ₹0.8 lakh crore, reaching nearly ₹12 lakh crore and supporting Q1 GDP growth.
Indian state refiners hit pause on Russian Oil imports: Report (Financial Express)
Indian state refiners have paused Russian crude purchases as discounts dropped to a two-year low and Trump warned of 100% tariffs on countries buying oil from Moscow, alongside a looming 25% tariff on Indian goods from August 1. Instead, refiners like IOC, BPCL, HPCL, and MRPL are turning to Middle Eastern and West African grades through the spot market. Although Russia supplies about 35% of India’s total oil imports, recent geopolitical risks and shrinking price advantages have triggered a strategic shift, especially from state-run players who handle over 60% of the country’s 5.2 mb/d refining capacity.
Sweet Surge Ahead: Sugar Output Seen Rising 18% To 34.9 Million Tonnes In 2025-26; ISMA Eyes Higher Exports And Ethanol Diversion (The Times of India)
India’s sugar production is projected to rise 18% to 34.9 million tonnes in 2025–26, supported by a 42% jump in sugarcane output driven by strong monsoon conditions and improved yields. After accounting for 5 million tonnes diverted to ethanol, around 30 million tonnes of fresh sugar will be available—well above the domestic consumption estimate of 28.5 million tonnes—allowing for potential exports of 2 million tonnes. ISMA urged timely policy decisions on export approvals and ethanol pricing, warning that delays could hurt the sector despite ample closing stocks of 5.2 million tonnes and no need for raw sugar imports.
