GST reforms to propel India's FY26 GDP growth to 7.4%, says NIPFP (Business Standard)
The National Institute of Public Finance and Policy projected India’s economic growth at 7.4 percent for the current financial year, driven by GST rate rationalisation, strong public investment, and resilient domestic consumption alongside a supportive US economy. The report outlined alternate growth scenarios, estimating an 8.8 percent expansion if the US output stays above potential and 6 percent if it falls below, while forecasting retail inflation at a moderate 1.6 percent owing to easing food prices but noting rising core inflation from precious metals. It also warned that India’s heavy reliance on the US for services exports poses a real risk amid widening Trump-era tariffs, urging diversification to protect against external vulnerabilities.
Rupee slips to 88.65: All eyes on crude, US-India trade deal progress (Financial Express)
The rupee weakened by 15 paise to 88.65 against the US dollar in early Wednesday trade, pressured by rising crude oil prices and foreign fund outflows despite renewed optimism over an India-US trade deal. Analysts noted that the recent MSCI Global Standard Index review, which added Fortis Healthcare, GE Vernova T&D India, Paytm, and Siemens Energy India, could trigger passive foreign inflows that may cushion the rupee in the short term. While the dollar index inched slightly higher and crude oil prices eased marginally, strong gains in domestic equities and expectations of progress in the US-India trade negotiations provided limited support to the local currency.
Trade deal with India ‘pretty close’: Trump (Financial Express)
India and the United States are nearing the conclusion of a new bilateral trade agreement that both sides describe as fair, comprehensive, and significantly different from past arrangements, with five negotiation rounds already completed and only political approval pending. President Donald Trump confirmed that India has sharply reduced its oil imports from Russia and hinted that the US would eventually lower tariffs on Indian goods, though recent reciprocal and penal tariffs imposed by Washington have already impacted India’s key export sectors such as textiles, gems, jewellery, and garments. Despite the current trade tensions and a 12 percent fall in Indian exports to the US in September, the proposed agreement is viewed as critical for restoring trade balance and potentially expanding bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.
