Daily News - Thursday, 15 January 2026
India’s retail inflation rises to 1.33%, RBI repo rate cut likely in February (Hindustan Times)
India’s retail inflation (CPI) rose to 1.33% in December 2025, up from 0.71% in November, according to data released by the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). Food inflation showed a decline of 2.71% in December, compared to a 3.91% fall in November, with vegetable prices dropping 18.47% and pulses down 15.09%. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, remained sticky at 4.73%, slightly higher than 4.42% in November, highlighting underlying price pressures. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had already cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% in December 2025, its lowest in three years, citing benign inflation and strong GDP growth. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that inflation is expected to stay below the 4% target until September 2026, while GDP growth is projected at 7.3% for FY26. Economists like Upasna Bhardwaj (Kotak Mahindra Bank) and Sakshi Gupta (HDFC Bank) noted that another rate cut in February 2026 remains possible, though the government’s planned revamp of inflation and GDP data by end‑February may influence the decision.
India’s growth model at risk: consumption rising, investment inflows falling (Financial Express)
India reported GDP growth above 8% in 2025, but net foreign portfolio outflows hit USD 19 billion (INR 1.58 trillion), even as other emerging markets saw inflows. According to Ruchir Sharma, Chair of Rockefeller International, India’s growth narrative is losing credibility as corporate revenue growth slowed to half the GDP rate, signaling structural weaknesses. The Financial Express notes Sharma’s warning that India is losing people and failing to attract foreign money, urging reforms to retain talent and draw long‑term capital. The Straits Times adds that despite world‑beating growth, India is no longer getting love for it, as outsiders doubt the sustainability of headline numbers. Analysts argue India’s model risks becoming consumption‑heavy but investment‑light, with rising worker migration draining productive human capital. The policy prescription across sources is clear: India must import more capital and export fewer workers to sustain growth, strengthen competitiveness, and secure its demographic dividend.
US President Donald Trump’s 25% Iran tariff puts India’s USD 1.7 Billion trade at risk (Times Now)
US President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping 25% tariff on any country that continues to trade with Iran, aimed at pressuring Tehran over its crackdown on protests that left nearly 600 people dead and thousands arrested. This move threatens India’s bilateral trade with Iran, valued at USD 1.68 billion (INR 14,000-15,000 crore) in FY2024‑25, including USD 1.24 billion exports and USD 0.44 billion imports, according to the Indian Embassy in Iran. India’s main exports to Iran are organic chemicals worth USD 512.92 million (INR ~42,000 crore) and fruits/nuts worth USD 311.60 million (INR ~25,500 crore), while imports include mineral fuels worth USD 86.48 million (INR ~7,000 crore). The tariff threat comes at a sensitive time, as Washington has already imposed up to 50% tariffs on certain Indian goods linked to Russian oil purchases, complicating ongoing India‑US trade negotiations. Analysts warn that an additional 25% tariff could further strain India’s export competitiveness and undermine its trade diversification strategy. A pending US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s global tariff powers may determine whether these duties can be legally enforced.
India set to surpass US as 2nd‑largest solar market in 2026 despite contract delays (The Hindu Businessline)
According to BloombergNEF (BNEF), nearly 42 GW of renewable energy (RE) projects in India are stalled due to the absence of offtake contracts, posing a major risk to achieving the country’s 2030 clean energy target of 500 GW. Despite this bottleneck, India is projected to overtake the US as the world’s second‑largest solar power market in 2026, with solar capacity additions expected to rise 6% year‑on‑year to just over 50 GW. Utility‑scale solar plants will continue to dominate new installations, while government subsidies are supporting growth in residential rooftop systems. Globally, solar build is forecast to decline for the first time due to a slowdown in China, but India remains a bright spot with steady expansion. The lack of power purchase agreements (PPAs) for 42 GW of projects highlights challenges in distribution company (DISCOM) engagement and risks delaying India’s clean energy transition. Experts warn that unless these stalled projects secure contracts, India’s ambitious 2030 renewable energy roadmap could face significant setbacks.
